End of the Dollar Empire — Gold Price Forecast 2026, De-Dollarization & the Rise of BRICS

From the Nixon Shock to a BRICS-led monetary shift: we explore why gold’s 2025 surge matters, what could push it toward five figures, and what investors should know.

This analysis delivers a data-driven Gold Price Forecast 2026  and a practical gold price prediction  framework.

Table of Contents

1. The Nixon Shock: Origin Story for Modern Gold Markets
2. The Macro Indicators That Move Gold: Then and Now
   • Inflation and Real Interest Rates
   • Monetary Expansion and Sovereign Debt
   • Currency Confidence and De-Dollarization
   • Geopolitical Shocks and Systemic Risk
   • Central Bank Behavior (The Structural Shift)
3. The 2025 Run: Facts on the Ground
4. BRICS and De-Dollarization: The Political Axis of Change
5. Why Supply Can’t Keep Pace
6. Pathways to Five-Figure Gold Prices: Realistic and Extreme
   • Plausible Slow Climb ($4k–$6k)
   • Speculative Revaluation (BRICS or New Reserve Unit)
   • Crisis-Driven Hyperinflation (Tail-Risk Scenario)
7. What a $15,000 Gold World Would Mean
8. Practical Guidance for Investors and Policy Watchers
   • For Investors
   • For Policy Watchers and Journalists
9. Narrative Hooks: How to Tell This Story
10. Gold Price Milestones & Forecast (1971–2025)
11. Conclusion: What the Gold Price Is Telling Us
12. Short Glossary
13. Sources & Further Reading

The Nixon Shock: Origin Story for Modern Gold Markets

August 1971 is a line in the sand for the global monetary system. Faced with a looming run on U.S. gold reserves and surging inflation, President Richard Nixon suspended dollar convertibility into gold, effectively ending the Bretton Woods agreement that had fixed the dollar’s value at $35 per ouncefederalreservehistory.org. This unilateral move—often termed the “Nixon Shock”—closed the famous gold window and freed gold to trade at market-determined prices. In one stroke, the world went off the gold standard, currencies began to float, and the modern era of volatile exchange rates and gold prices was bornfederalreservehistory.org.

Why does a 1971 decision still matter today? By delinking the dollar from gold, Nixon’s move fundamentally rewired the global monetary plumbing. It introduced a new dynamic where fiat currencies, inflation, and investor confidence determine gold’s price, rather than an official peg. The 1970s that followed saw gold’s first post-peg bull market, as double-digit inflation and geopolitical turmoil sent investors scrambling for a stable store of value. The lesson from that era endures: when trust in paper money diminishes—be it through inflation, war, or debt mismanagement—the allure of gold returns. Politicians and central bankers know this history, which is why even decades later they keep a wary eye on the barometer of confidence that is the gold price.

Understanding 1971’s regime shift is foundational to any credible gold price prediction and anchors our Gold Price Forecast 2026.

The Macro Indicators That Move Gold: Then and Now

Gold is not magical; it responds to tangible economic signals. After 1971, certain core indicators emerged as key drivers of gold’s fortunes. Those same factors still matter in 2025, offering a roadmap for understanding gold price movements and predictions. Below are the main drivers:

These drivers form the backbone of our Gold Price Forecast 2026 and inform a flexible gold price prediction across scenarios.

Inflation and Real Interest Rates

Gold is the classic non-yielding asset—it pays no interest or dividends. Its appeal rises when the return on safe bonds, adjusted for inflation, turns negative. In the late 1970s, U.S. inflation spiked above 10% while interest rates struggled to keep up, meaning anyone holding cash or bonds was losing purchasing power. That environment helped propel gold to then-record highs (peaking at ~$850/oz in January 1980) as investors sought an inflation shelter. The dynamic is similar today. In 2024–25, inflation has at times outpaced nominal rates, delivering negative real yields. Whenever real interest rates dip below zero or are perceived to stay very low, the opportunity cost of holding gold falls. Investors, from individuals to central banks, increase allocations to gold in such periods as a hedge against eroding currency valuecbsnews.com. Gold’s big run in 2025 came amid expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve would pivot to rate cuts even as inflation, while off its peak, remained above target. In short, when cash and bonds don’t keep up with living costs, gold shines.

If real yields turn negative again, our gold price prediction skews higher.

Monetary Expansion and Sovereign Debt Dynamics

Debt sustainability is the swing factor in our Gold Price Forecast 2026.

A country’s debt and monetary policy can undermine confidence in its currency, boosting gold. In the 1970s, heavy U.S. spending on war and social programs, financed by an accommodating Federal Reserve, raised fears of currency debasement. The result: investors fled to gold, whose supply can’t be printed at will. Fast forward to the 2020s and the world is emerging from an era of massive fiscal expansion. Global sovereign debt is at or near historic highs relative to GDP, after governments unleashed trillions of dollars in stimulus during the COVID-19 pandemic. Observers worry that central banks will face pressure to monetize these debts – essentially printing money to finance government deficits – especially if economic growth doesn’t keep up with debt servicing costs. Such concerns aren’t theoretical. In recent years, some central banks have directly or indirectly financed fiscal programs, blurring the line between fiscal and monetary policy. Heavy debt plus hints of money-printing to come create a fertile backdrop for gold. Investors buy gold as “insurance” against irresponsible monetary policy. Gold’s surge since 2020, which accelerated in 2023–25, mirrors rising worries that major currencies (like the dollar, euro, yen) will be deliberately weakened over time to ease debt burdens. The higher the debt and deficits, the stronger the case for gold as a store of value.

Currency Confidence and De-Dollarization

Gold’s price in dollars is, in one sense, a comment on the strength of the dollar. When the dollar weakens, it takes more of them to buy an ounce of gold, pushing gold’s price up. But beyond this mechanical inverse link, there’s a deeper trend at play: de-dollarization. This term refers to efforts by various countries to reduce their reliance on the U.S. dollar for trade, reserves, and finance. In 2025, the debate over de-dollarization has moved from theory to practice. Countries like China, Russia, and others in the BRICS bloc (Brazil, India, South Africa, etc.) have struck bilateral trade deals in local currencies, created currency swap lines, and even talked about developing alternative reserve assets. Central banks around the world have noticed the geopolitical risks of an all-in dollar strategy – especially after the freezing of Russian dollar reserves in 2022 – and many are actively diversifying away from the greenbackinvestmentnews.cominvestmentnews.com. Gold is the prime beneficiary of this trend. According to a June 2025 survey by the World Gold Council, nearly three-quarters of central banks expect the dollar’s share of global reserves to fall in the next five years, and a record 95% of respondents anticipate global gold reserves will increase over the next yeargold.orggold.org. As dollar usage erodes at the margin, our gold price prediction reflects a structurally higher allocation to neutral reserves like gold. In other words, official institutions are voting with their portfolios for a more multipolar reserve world. Every percentage point decline in confidence (and holdings) in the U.S. dollar tends to translate into higher gold demandreuters.comreuters.com. Gold, unlike a national currency, is no one’s liability – a feature newly appreciated in an era of financial sanctions and great-power rivalry.

Geopolitical Shocks and Systemic Risk

From Middle East wars to superpower tensions, geopolitical upheavals have a history of boosting gold. In the 1970s, events like the OPEC oil embargo (1973) and the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan (1979) rattled markets and sent investors into hard assets, gold included. The pattern has repeated in the 21st century. In 2022, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine spurred a rush into gold. In the following years, wars, trade conflicts, and diplomatic rifts have kept uncertainty high. Gold is often called the “safe-haven” asset for such times: when other assets are tanking due to fear and volatility, gold typically gains. One reason is that gold has no credit risk – it can’t go bankrupt – and it’s universally accepted. Another reason is more psychological: gold’s value is not tied to any one country’s fortunes, so it’s a refuge from local chaos. We saw this in 2025 when political turmoil in the United States – including unprecedented attacks by the U.S. president on the Federal Reserve’s independence – combined with multiple regional conflicts to create an atmosphere of uncertainty. Investors big and small loaded up on gold as a result. As Standard Chartered analyst Suki Cooper noted, “lingering political and economic risks” alongside Fed rate cut bets have underpinned gold’s record runreuters.comreuters.com. The more “risk-off” moments we see, the more support flows into gold.

Geopolitical risk premia are a recurring upside catalyst in any gold price prediction.

Central Bank Behavior (The Structural Shift)

Perhaps the most important structural change in the gold market over the past decade has been the conduct of central banks themselves. For much of the 1980s and 1990s, central banks (especially in the West) were net sellers of gold, reducing their bullion holdings while they gained confidence in the dollar-based financial system. That trend has sharply reversed. Since about 2010 – and accelerating in the last five years – central banks globally have become net buyers of gold, and at a torrid pace. They are not just diversifying reserves modestly; many are making large, price-insensitive purchases as strategic shifts. In 2022, central banks bought a record 1,136 tonnes of gold, and purchases in 2023 and 2024 remained historically highinvestmentnews.com. Notably, emerging market central banks like China, India, Turkey, and Brazil have led the charge, though even some developed nations (such as Poland or Hungary) have added gold. Why does this matter? Because central banks are “sticky” holders – they don’t trade in and out on a whim. When they accumulate gold, that gold is effectively taken off the market for a generation or more, tightening supply. And their motives are strategic (hedging dollar exposure, guarding against sanctions, preparing for potential currency crises) rather than tactical. The World Gold Council’s 2025 survey found not only overwhelming expectations for higher global gold reserves, but also that 43% of central banks plan to increase their own gold holdings in the next 12 months, up from 29% a year priorgold.org. This shift by the official sector creates a kind of backstop for gold demand that wasn’t present in past decades. It helps explain why gold prices have remained resilient even during periods when traditional investors (like gold-backed ETFs) saw outflows. In summary, central banks have changed sides, from a headwind in the 90s to a tailwind now. Their steady demand is a structural pillar under the gold price today. Persistent official-sector demand effectively raises the floor in our Gold Price Forecast 2026.

The 2025 Run: Facts on the Ground

All these factors converged in 2025 to produce an inflection point in gold’s long story. Gold entered 2025 already on an upswing – it had closed 2024 around $2,900/oz, itself a record at the time – and then it kicked into overdrive. On April 22, 2025, spot gold touched the $3,500 per ounce mark for the first time in historyreuters.com. That day proved to be more than a one-off spike; it was the opening of a new chapter. Through mid-2025, gold notched record after record. By September, it was routinely trading above $3,600 and even $3,700 on some days, logging dozens of all-time highs. (By April 22, the metal had already set 28 record highs in the year, with 16 of those above the $3,000 levelreuters.com.) As of today (September 28, 2025), gold is around $3,758/oz – roughly 40% higher than at the start of the yearreuters.com.

This dramatic run wasn’t fueled by just one type of buyer; it’s been a broad-based surge. Institutional investors, retail traders, and especially central banks were all buying. Reuters reported that 2025 saw relentless safe-haven flows: every bout of U.S. political uncertainty, every weak data point that raised hopes of Fed easing, pushed more capital into goldreuters.comreuters.com. Notably, central banks accelerated purchases in late 2024 and early 2025 – China, for example, added gold to its reserves for a fifth straight month in March 2025reuters.com – contributing to the momentum. Major Wall Street banks, which historically were conservative in their gold outlooks, began revising their forecasts upward as the rally continued. In April, J.P. Morgan told clients it expected gold to surpass $4,000/oz in 2026, citing rising recession risks and persistent U.S.-China tensionsreuters.com. Goldman Sachs in early 2025 raised its year-end target to $3,700 and noted that if central banks kept up heavy buying (100+ tonnes a month globally), gold could hit $3,810 by end-2025reuters.com. By September, even traditionally reserved forecasters like Deutsche Bank bumped their 2026 average gold price forecast to $4,000 (from $3,700 prior) on expectations of strong demand and a weaker dollar aheadreuters.com. In short, the consensus has quickly shifted: levels once considered outlandish (like $3,500) are now in the rearview mirror, and $4,000 is seen as likely in the near term.

What caused this surge? Fundamentally, 2025 brought a perfect storm of bullish factors. Inflation remained above central bank targets in many countries. The U.S. Federal Reserve, after the fastest rate hikes in decades, signaled a pause and possible cuts as the economy showed strain – hammering real interest rates and the dollar. Politically, the return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency brought erratic policy and open conflict with the Fed, raising fears of institutional instability in the world’s biggest economyreuters.comreuters.com. Abroad, the war in Ukraine dragged on, and new conflicts simmered. Investors flocked to gold as a refuge from uncertainty. As one analyst told Reuters in April, “Gold is recalibrating to reflect what can only be described as epic changes in the global financial system… a widespread and fundamental shift in confidence in the world’s reserve currency and its bond markets”reuters.com. In plainer terms, people are losing a bit of faith in the dollar and U.S. Treasuries, and they’re parking that faith in gold.

This repricing phase reframes baseline assumptions for a 2026 pathway; our Gold Price Forecast 2026 incorporates both momentum and mean-reversion in a balanced gold price prediction.

BRICS and De-Dollarization: The Political Axis of Change

If the 1970s gold story was about the U.S. breaking free of gold, the 2020s story may be about the world breaking free of the U.S. dollar. A significant subplot in gold’s rise is the push by BRICS nations and others to reduce dollar dependence. The BRICS countries – Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, and soon to expand with new members – have openly championed a shift toward a more multipolar currency world. In practical terms, this has involved several initiatives:

• Local-currency trade: China and Russia now conduct the majority of their trade in yuan or rubles. India buys oil from Russia in rupees. Brazil and China have a currency-swap agreement to settle trades in their own currencies. Such steps bypass the dollar in bilateral commerce.
• Alternative payment systems: The BRICS are exploring and, in China’s case, expanding cross-border interbank payment systems that don’t rely on SWIFT (the dollar-centric network). There’s also talk of developing a common digital platform for BRICS trade.
• A new reserve currency unit: Perhaps the boldest idea floated is a BRICS joint currency for international trade, possibly backed by a basket of commodities or even gold. At the 2024 BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia, officials discussed a potential gold-linked “BRICS Unit” as an eventual dollar alternativeinvestingnews.com. While no immediate action came of it, the intent was clear – to insulate themselves from the dollar’s dominance and the political strings that come with it. Vladimir Putin even held up a prototype BRICS banknote (promptly dubbed the “BRICS buck” by observers), though he publicly downplayed any near-term move away from using the dollar, emphasizing instead the goal of deterring dollar “weaponization” by building systems to use local currencies among BRICS membersinvestingnews.com.

None of these moves, by themselves, will dethrone the dollar tomorrow. But collectively, they chip away at the network effects that have long underpinned dollar hegemony. For example, if even 10% of trade among BRICS is settled in non-dollar currencies, that’s billions of dollars’ worth of transactions that no longer create demand for U.S. Treasury bills or dollar bank reserves. Over time, reduced usage can translate into reduced status as the default reserve asset. Gold stands to gain in such a scenario. In fact, there’s evidence it’s already happening: central banks in countries friendly to the BRICS initiative (or wary of U.S. sanctions) have been among the most aggressive gold buyers. Russia added over 1,500 tonnes to its gold reserves in the past decade. China has famously understated its gold purchases by routing them through state banks, but has still officially reported over 2,000 tonnes in reserves (with many analysts believing the true figure is much higher). From Turkey to Kazakhstan to Qatar, many countries have upped their gold percentages. A key motivation, as a UBS survey found, is the desire to hedge against the “weaponization of foreign exchange reserves” – in other words, the risk that the U.S. could freeze a country’s dollar assets as a geopolitical toolinvestmentnews.cominvestmentnews.com. Gold, which you can store in your own vault and which no foreign government can create or cancel, is attractive under such circumstances. “Gold is definitely seen as a way to reduce sanctions risk,” notes Massimiliano Castelli of UBS Asset Management, “Because if you buy gold and repatriate it, it would be very difficult to target that asset with sanctions”investmentnews.com.

So, the BRICS story and the gold story are intertwined. The more those nations (and their many partners in the developing world) seek an alternative to an “all your eggs in one basket” dollar system, the more gold will be accumulated as part of the new mix. We should be careful not to overhype this – even BRICS leaders concede the U.S. dollar will remain a major player for a long timeinvestingnews.com. But the direction is set. The political will to challenge the dollar has never been stronger, and gold is a key beneficiary and facilitator of that shift. Some have even speculated that BRICS might eventually introduce a gold-backed digital currency for trade. Even if that exact idea doesn’t materialize, the speculation alone has contributed to bullish sentiment on gold, highlighting its role at the center of a possible new monetary order.

If settlement in non-USD systems scales, our gold price prediction tilts toward the upper bound of our Gold Price Forecast 2026.

Why Supply Can’t Keep Pace

Amid all this surging demand – from investors large and small, from central banks, from industries (like jewelry and tech) – one thing has remained stubborn: gold supply. Gold is special among commodities because its supply is relatively inelastic in the short to medium term. Higher prices do not bring a flood of new gold into the market, at least not quickly. There are a few reasons for this:

• Mining is slow and costly: Discovering a significant new gold deposit and then turning it into a producing mine can take 5, 10, even 15 years of development, environmental permitting, and construction. It’s also capital-intensive; companies are hesitant to invest billions on new mines unless they believe high prices will last many years. As a result, even though gold prices doubled over the past three years, we haven’t seen a doubling of mine output. In fact, global gold mine production has been roughly flat to slightly up in recent years, growing only about 1%–2% per year. One expert noted that in the past decade gold mining output grew less than 10% totalcbsnews.com. Another analysis explains that annual mine production adds only around 2% to 3% to the total above-ground gold stock, so even significant investment in mining only nudges the needleinvestopedia.com.
• Resource exhaustion and high grading: Many of the world’s largest, easiest gold deposits have already been mined over the past century. New discoveries are rarer and often in difficult places (geologically or geopolitically). When prices rise, miners sometimes respond by processing higher-grade ore (to get more gold out for the same effort), but that can shorten a mine’s life. There’s no quick way to significantly boost global output; even existing mines have limits on how much ore they can process per day.
• Recycling responds slowly: A secondary source of supply is recycled gold – people selling jewelry, or industry reclaiming scrap. Recycling can increase when prices shoot up (as jewelry owners melt down old items to cash in, for example), but it’s a modest effect and temporary. In 2025, recycling actually lagged expectations by a small amountreuters.com, which means even at record prices people weren’t offloading enough to dent the shortage.
• Paper gold vs. physical reality: It’s worth noting that while you can have lots of paper contracts (futures, options, ETFs) that create the appearance of more gold supply, at the end of the day those claims ultimately hinge on a relatively fixed physical supply. If enough holders of “paper gold” demand actual metal, the scarcity becomes apparent.

All this means that when demand rises significantly, the price has to do most of the work to balance the market. Unlike, say, copper or oil – where high prices can lead to a rush of new drilling or new production within a year or two – gold can’t be rapidly pumped out of the ground. As a report from CBS News in early 2025 put it, “Unlike many commodities, gold supply doesn’t quickly respond to price changes. When demand surges, there isn’t a flood of new supply to drive prices back down”cbsnews.com. This supply inelasticity has been a key factor in gold’s steep climb. It’s also a key reason many analysts think gold’s floor price has structurally risen. With central banks soaking up 1,000+ tonnes a year and investors buying on top of that, the mining industry simply can’t keep up – so prices adjust upward to ration the available gold.

Pathways to Five-Figure Gold Prices: Realistic and Extreme

Gold at $3,758 (today’s price) is already a major feat. But in the world of headline-grabbing predictions, numbers like $5,000, $10,000, even $15,000 per ounce get tossed around. Let’s unpack what scenarios could lead to those prices. We’ll go from the more plausible to the highly extreme:

Pathway 1 — Slow Burn to High Four Figures (Plausible)
Our base-case Gold Price Forecast 2026 anticipates an orderly stair-step advance under low real yields and steady central-bank demand. Central banks keep buying hundreds of tonnes per year, real interest rates globally remain low or occasionally negative, geopolitical flare-ups keep investors on edge, and the U.S. dollar continues a gradual decline in global share. In this environment, gold’s uptrend would likely continue in a stair-step pattern: $4,000/oz becomes the new normal sometime in 2026, then perhaps $5,000/oz a couple years later. Many mainstream analysts now consider something like this their base case (with appropriate time horizons). For instance, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan both have base forecasts around $4,000 by 2025–26reuters.com. Deutsche Bank recently said gold could average $4,000 in 2026 amid strong demand and Fed easingreuters.com. None of these assume chaos; they assume a mild U.S. recession, some Fed rate cuts, continued central bank and ETF inflows, and a weaker dollar. In essence: a continuation of 2025’s environment into 2026 and beyond. If gold reaches the high $4,000s by late this decade under these conditions, it will mostly mean that the post-pandemic macro forces (high debt, low rates, deglobalization, etc.) are playing out in slow motion. This path feels dramatic but is actually the one many institutional investors are quietly positioning for – an extended period of currency debasement and geopolitical risk that lifts gold steadily. (Note: Even in these bullish-but-orderly scenarios, sharp pullbacks will occur. But as long as the underlying drivers remain, each dip could be a buying opportunity – as analysts have noted, expecting only “short-lived” corrections given the physical and strategic demand under gold’s marketreuters.com.)

Pathway 2 — Step-Change Revaluation (Speculative)
This is a more sudden jump scenario. Here, some deliberate action or big shift causes a quick repricing of gold higher by, say, 50% or 100% in a short span. One often discussed catalyst is a BRICS-led currency initiative: for example, if the BRICS announced they are launching a trade settlement currency or digital coin backed by a mix of gold and commodities. Such a move could cause a rush among central banks to hoard gold to prepare for using that system, and it could change investor psychology about gold’s role. Another possibility is a major change in how gold is treated in the financial system, such as an international agreement to use gold to settle certain balances (this is reminiscent of the 1960s before Bretton Woods fell apart, but could be imagined in a new form). These things are speculative – there are many operational and political hurdles before a “new gold-linked reserve unit” sees the light of day. But the key is, if such an idea gained traction, the price of gold might reset higher very fast. Governments or central banks might even encourage a higher gold price if they were moving to a partial gold standard, because a higher price effectively increases the value of their gold reserves. (It’s happened before: in 1933, FDR revalued gold from $20.67 to $35 per ounce, a 69% jump, to devalue the dollar; in 1973, after the Nixon shock, the U.S. again raised the official gold price from $38 to $42.22, then let it float.) In a modern context, one could imagine gold shooting up to $7,000–$10,000 if major economies wanted to “reset” their currencies’ footing. Again, it’s not a base-case scenario – it would require extraordinary consensus among various countries or a desperate measure in a crisis. But it’s in the realm of possibility, especially as talk grows of a post-dollar world. Under such a reset, our gold price prediction allows for a rapid re-rating into the $7k–$10k zone.

Pathway 3 — Crisis-Driven Hyper-Repricing (Tail Risk)
This is not our base gold price prediction, but it defines the extreme boundary conditions. This is the extreme scenario – where gold doesn’t just rise, it explodes parabolically in price because the world’s monetary order implodes. Think hyperinflation in a major economy or a complete loss of faith in fiat currencies. In this scenario, gold isn’t going up because it’s thriving – it’s going up because everything else is dying. One historical analogy is the Weimar Germany hyperinflation of 1920-1923. In that episode, the German mark became worthless, and the price of gold in marks went from 170 in 1919 to 87 trillion in 1923bullionvault.com. (Yes, trillion with a “t” – by the end it was essentially infinite in local currency terms.) Were something like that to happen in a major economy today – say the U.S., or the Eurozone – gold’s dollar price would similarly go to the moon, approaching five or six figures, but those dollars would be near-worthless. It’s a hedge against an apocalyptic scenario: a global currency collapse, or a world war that destroys trust in paper money, or a cascade of sovereign debt defaults that force governments into unchecked money printing. Under such conditions, investors would dump currencies en masse and pile into tangible assets like gold, silver, land, etc. The nominal price of gold could hit $10,000, $15,000, or beyond, but it would be a symptom of currency failure. Mainstream institutions assign a very low probability to this in the developed world – and history supports that view (hyperinflation has almost never happened to reserve-currency countries in modern times; it tends to befall nations already in political collapse or defeat in war). Nonetheless, it’s the nightmare that some gold bugs prepare for.

In summary, $5,000 gold is plausible in a strong-but-orderly bull case within a few years (indeed, some top investors like billionaire John Paulson have pointed to the possibility of ~$5k by 2027–28 amid central bank buying and trade tensionsreuters.com). $10,000 gold would likely require a more seismic shift – either a policy-led revaluation or a major crisis of confidence. And $15,000+ gold almost implies a new monetary system or a collapse of the old one. It’s worth noting that a few technical analysts out there have pointed to long-term chart patterns and money supply ratios that make even $15,000 sound “entirely reasonable” eventually. For instance, an analysis by Northstar Charts in early 2025 argued that gold’s past big bull markets (using certain indicators like the Ichimoku Cloud) saw ~600% gains, which if replicated from the $2,500 level would imply gold around $15,000finbold.comfinbold.com. Such forecasts are very much outliers, but they illustrate that some are indeed contemplating five-figure gold. The takeaway: while $10k or $15k aren’t anybody’s base case, the fact they are whispered about at all in financial circles in 2025 indicates how dramatically the sentiment around gold has shifted in this new macro regime.

What a $15,000 Gold World Would Mean

A $15k print sits far beyond our central Gold Price Forecast 2026, yet mapping it clarifies tail-risk in any gold price prediction.

For a thought experiment, let’s imagine we wake up and gold is $15,000 per ounce (in 2025 dollars). Setting aside the exact path that got us there, consider the implications:

• Fiat Currency Confidence Collapse: Such a gold price would almost certainly mean a severe loss of confidence in major currencies like the dollar, euro, yen, etc. Gold at $15k likely means the purchasing power of those currencies has plunged. We might be looking at double-digit or worse annual inflation in those currencies, or at least the expectation of such inflation. Essentially, $15k gold = paper money is in trouble. Consumers would find everyday goods vastly more expensive, and if wages don’t keep up, living standards would erode. There could be social unrest in many places as people scramble to protect their savings from devaluation.
• Monetary System Reset: At $15,000/oz, the gold held by central banks would be worth so much in local currency terms that you could see a push to re-anchor currencies to gold. For instance, the U.S. Treasury’s 8,133 tonnes of gold would be valued over $4 trillion at that price, which could back a meaningful portion of a new money supply if one were trying to restore confidence. It’s possible that in a $15k gold scenario, we are either on the cusp of, or just experienced, a Bretton Woods-type conference where a new global monetary arrangement is decided.
• Debt Jubilee by Stealth: High gold (and thus a weak dollar) also means past debts are being inflated away. A country that borrowed in its own currency effectively “defaults” in real terms by paying back in devalued money. A $15k gold world might coincide with, say, the effective erasure of large portions of government debt through inflation. Good for debtors, terrible for creditors.
• Commodity Prices Soar: Gold rarely moves in isolation that much – other commodities might also be at stratospheric levels. Oil could be hundreds of dollars a barrel, food prices multiples of what they are now, etc., if the cause is inflation. If the cause is a gold standard revaluation, other commodities might not spike as much relatively, but still, gold’s rise could drag silver, platinum, etc., much higher as well (they often piggyback in a bull market).
• Investor Behavior: In a world where gold is $15,000, anyone who had significant gold or silver would see their wealth massively increased in nominal terms. Those who stuck with only stocks or bonds would likely have seen those assets lag badly (in inflation-adjusted terms, many conventional investments would be down). Investment strategies would undergo a sea change. Gold might become not just an “alternative” asset but back to center stage in portfolios, maybe even with mandated roles (e.g., banks might be required to hold gold reserves again).
• Political Fallout: If gold hits such lofty heights because of a crisis, political leaders and central bankers will face immense backlash. The 1970s, when gold went up 20x after Bretton Woods ended, saw a crisis of confidence in government, a wave of anti-incumbent sentiment, and the rise of leaders promising stability (Paul Volcker at the Fed, Ronald Reagan politically, etc.). A repeat could see major political shifts, possibly more extreme ideologies coming to power, or conversely, technocrats given free rein to “fix” the system.

The bottom line is that five-figure gold would not occur in a vacuum. It’d likely coincide with what most would call an economic catastrophe or at least a radical restructuring. For that reason, many investors treat the prospect of $10k+ gold as a low-probability tail risk – but one worth hedging, maybe by holding a small amount of gold “just in case.” It’s the equivalent of a fire insurance policy on your house: you pray you never need it, because if you do, it means your house burned down. Five-figure gold is a bit like that: great for gold holders, but if you think through what the world looks like in that event, it’s not a world you’d eagerly wish for. As a financial writer for Investopedia noted in 2023, the inflation-adjusted peak from 1980 (~$3,300 in today’s dollars) stood for decadesinvestopedia.com; breaking far above it would signal truly uncharted waters. Gold crossing $3,500 in 2025 finally beat that old record in real terms – a moment some see as heralding a new era. Gold at $15,000 would mean the pendulum swung to an extreme.

Practical Guidance for Investors and Policy Watchers

All this discussion of macro forces and tail risks is important, but what should one do with this information? Here are some tactical and strategic considerations for different audiences:

Here’s how to act on a Gold Price Forecast 2026 without overfitting a single gold price prediction.

For Investors:

1. Define Your Time Horizon: Are you looking to trade gold for a short-term gain, or hold it as a long-term hedge? The answer matters. Gold is notoriously volatile in the short run – 10% swings in a month are not uncommon – so if you have a 6-month view, you might use different instruments (like futures or options, carefully) than if you have a 6-year view (where physical gold or ETFs might suffice). Generally, gold works better as a long-term stabilizer than as a quick trade, unless you’re a seasoned commodity trader.
2. Choose Your Vehicle: There are multiple ways to get gold exposure. You can buy physical bullion or coins, which gives you direct ownership (and no default risk, but then you must store and secure it). There are gold ETFs (like SPDR Gold Shares, ticker GLD) which trade like stocks and are backed by physical gold – very liquid and convenient, though you rely on the fund’s management to actually hold the gold. There are gold mining stocks and funds – these often act as leveraged plays on gold since miners’ profits explode when gold prices rise, but they carry company and management risks and can diverge from gold’s price. There are also gold futures and options for more advanced players. Each has pros and cons: for example, physical gold might be harder to sell on short notice and has storage costs, while ETFs have small annual fees and some say not your gold if not in hand. Many investors use a mix (some coins in a safe deposit box plus some ETF shares for liquidity).
3. Size Appropriately: It’s generally not wise to bet the farm on any single asset, gold included. The old rule of thumb for a traditional portfolio was to have maybe 5% in gold for diversification. Some institutions have raised that to 10% or even 15% in recent years given the uncertainties. If you’re particularly concerned about the extreme scenarios, you might go higher. But remember, gold can underperform other assets for long stretches (for example, from 1980 to 2000 it languished). A balanced approach is key – gold is insurance, and like insurance you don’t necessarily want to be overinsured if it drags on performance. The right allocation also depends on what other assets you have (if your portfolio is heavy on, say, tech stocks and growth assets, a bit more gold might counterbalance them).
4. Monitor the Right Signals: If you’re going to invest in gold, keep an eye on the indicators that drive it. Some key ones:
   • Real interest rates: As discussed, gold often moves inversely to these. Tools like the 10-year TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities) yield give a quick sense of real rates. When those drop, gold usually rises, and vice versa.
   • Central bank buying reports: The World Gold Council publishes quarterly updates on which central banks are buying. A sudden surge (or stop) in that could influence the market. The WGC 2025 survey, for instance, gave an early indication that even more central banks plan to add gold, which was a bullish signgold.orggold.org.
   • Dollar index (DXY): This measures the dollar against other major currencies. Gold often moves opposite to the dollar’s strength. If you see a sustained dollar downtrend (perhaps due to Fed easing or twin deficits in the U.S.), that’s supportive of gold.
   • Geopolitical news: Big geopolitical events (wars, sanctions, etc.) can cause knee-jerk gold rallies. Not all will last, but being aware can help you understand price spikes.
   • Market sentiment and positions: Commitments of Traders (COT) reports can tell you how hedge funds are positioned in gold futures. If everyone is extremely bullish, sometimes that’s a contrarian warning (as they may all have bought already). Conversely, if everyone’s short gold and pessimistic, it could be primed for a jump.
   • Inflation trends: Especially watch inflation expectations (like breakeven rates from bonds). Gold tends to move when people expect higher inflation down the road, even before the inflation shows up in data.

Also, listen to the big banks’ research but critically. When J.P. Morgan or Goldman changes their gold outlook, it’s notable. For example, when JPMorgan, once lukewarm on gold, started talking about $4,200 by 2026reuters.com, it signaled a sea change in mainstream acceptance of the bull case. Likewise, Goldman’s commentary on scenarios up to $5,000reuters.comreuters.com is telling – they’re basically giving a roadmap of what to watch (Fed independence issues, investor rotation from bonds to gold, etc.).

Practical Guidance for Investors

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For Policy Watchers and Journalists:

Policy narratives that shift settlement and reserves directly shape our gold price prediction parameters.

1. Follow De-Dollarization Efforts (Not Just Rhetoric): It’s easy to get caught in sensational headlines like “Country X wants to dump the dollar.” The more concrete things to track are trade agreements in local currencies, central bank reserve data, and payment system developments. If you see, for instance, a new Asian clearing union that settles in non-dollar currencies, or Saudi Arabia accepting yuan for oil, those are big deals. They might not immediately crash the dollar, but they point to a trend that boosts gold. Also watch IMF COFER data (currency composition of reserves) which comes quarterly – a steady downtick in the dollar’s share and uptick in “Other” (which includes gold) is the long game.
2. Watch Central Bank Statements and Actions: The tone central bankers use about gold can be subtle but revealing. For decades, Western central banks rarely mentioned gold. Now, we see some references to it in speeches (often in context of reserves management). Emerging market central bankers are more vocal – they often talk about “active management” of gold reserves or diversification. If, say, the People’s Bank of China hints at a target for gold reserves or a desire to make Shanghai a global gold trading hub, that’s significant. Even smaller central banks sometimes publish their reasons for buying gold (e.g., Serbia’s central bank explicitly said in 2019 they bought gold as a safeguard against crises). These qualitative aspects supplement the data. The World Gold Council’s annual central bank survey is a goldmine (pardon the pun) for quotes from anonymous central bankers about why they’re doing what they’re doingreuters.com.
3. Understand the Difference Between Short-Term Noise and Structural Changes: Gold can have wild days based on fleeting news – for example, a positive U.S. jobs report might bash gold $50 down because traders bet the Fed will hike. Those things reverse and mean little to the long-term story. As a journalist, it’s important to contextualize. The more interesting stories aren’t “Gold up 1% because X today,” but “Gold up 40% this year because central banks and investors are making structural shifts.” The latter was the case in 2025 – while there were many day-to-day drivers, the real story was the macro pivot to a world of persistent inflation and geopolitical risk. Always tie the price action to those bigger drivers when communicating to readers, otherwise gold’s moves can seem random.
4. Don’t Forget History: A bit of historical analogy goes a long way in explaining gold. When writing about de-dollarization, recalling the Nixon shock and the end of Bretton Woods (as we did above) provides crucial backgroundfederalreservehistory.org. When discussing inflation fears, citing the 1970s or other countries’ experiences (Weimar, Zimbabwe, Argentina) can make it tangible. Gold often shines in history’s darkest economic chapters, for better or worse.

Narrative Hooks: How to Tell This Story

Frame the story, then ground it in an explicit Gold Price Forecast 2026.

For writers and analysts, gold’s resurgence offers rich narrative material. To engage audiences, consider blending the human drama with the macro big picture:

• Start with a scene or anecdote: Perhaps President Nixon on television on August 15, 1971, announcing the dollar will no longer be backed by gold – the shock and confusion that followed. This dramatic moment is a great hook (the “origin story” of today’s gold market). Or open in a bustling gold souk in Dubai or a bullion vault in London as the price hits a new high, connecting past and present.
• Show the stakes through individuals: You might introduce a character like a central bank governor who lived through a currency crisis early in her career and is now stockpiling gold for her country, or a young tech worker who started buying gold-backed crypto tokens on his phone as a hedge against inflation. Put a face to what can be an abstract topic.
• Use vivid comparisons: For instance, explain de-dollarization by painting a picture: “Imagine a world where oil from Saudi Arabia is bought in Chinese yuan, where a Brazilian company pays a Russian supplier in digital reais – that’s the future some are angling for. In that world, what’s the neutral asset everyone trusts? Likely not another country’s IOU, but something far more ancient: gold.”
• Weave in the historical parallels regularly: E.g., “The last time inflation was this high, in 1980, gold hit a peak that wasn’t surpassed (after adjusting for inflation) for 45 yearsinvestopedia.com. Now that peak is in the rearview mirror, and gold is writing new history.” Remind readers that we’ve been here before in some ways.
• Address the “what if I’m wrong” angle: Good analysis also notes counterarguments. For balance, mention that if inflation is tamed and the world goes back to low-rate, low-uncertainty conditions, gold could stagnate or fall. Some analysts still see gold’s rally as overdone if, say, AI-driven productivity boosts growth or peace deals ease geopolitical tensions. This shows you’re not a gold perma-bull, but are weighing scenarios.
• Finish by circling back: If you opened with Nixon, maybe close by reflecting on how that decision echoes today – with central bankers effectively engaged in a great reversal, buying gold once more to shore up confidence.

By crafting the story this way, you help readers feel the weight of events. Gold is often called a “barometer” of global anxiety. The narrative, therefore, is not just about a metal, but about trust – trust in governments, in money, in stability. When that falters, the world turns to gold. It’s a tale as old as civilization, and it’s unfolding anew in our time.

Gold Price Milestones & Forecast (1971–2025)

To put the recent move in perspective, here’s a look at some major gold price milestones from the end of Bretton Woods to the present, and what was happening at the time:

Caption: Historic context informing our Gold Price Forecast 2026 and multi-path gold price prediction.

† The $42 figure in 1971 refers to the final official U.S. Treasury price of gold after the dollar was de-linked (an artifact; the market price quickly exceeded this). By comparison, $850 in 1980 would be roughly $3,000–3,300 in 2025 dollars – meaning gold’s 1980 record was finally surpassed in real terms in 2025investopedia.com. Each crisis since 1971 (oil shocks, 2008, 2020, etc.) has seen gold notch a higher plateau.

Now, looking ahead, Translating history into a forward view, our Gold Price Forecast 2026 outlines ranges and triggers for each **gold price prediction** scenario. here are some notable price forecasts and “what-if” targets that have been circulating, along with the conditions required for gold to reach them:

• $4,000/oz (by ~2026) – Widely forecast (bullish case): This is the approximate consensus of bullish investment banks. For example, Goldman Sachs projects ~$4,000 by mid-2026 (with $3,700 by end-2025) assuming continued central-bank demand and a shift by some private investors into goldreuters.comreuters.com. Deutsche Bank similarly sees an average of $4,000 in 2026reuters.com. J.P. Morgan and UBS have made calls in the high-$3,000s in that timeframe as well. Key drivers needed: Fed pivots to rate cuts (reducing real yields), the U.S. dollar softens, and no let-up in central bank buying. Risks to this outlook: A strong economic recovery with rising real rates, or a resolution of geopolitical conflicts, could cap gold under $4k. (Goldman also warned that in a scenario where U.S. policy credibility erodes – e.g., political meddling with the Fed – gold could overshoot to ~$4,500–5,000reuters.comreuters.com.)
• $5,000/oz (late 2020s) – High-side scenario (some institutions): A few respected investors like John Paulson have mentioned gold potentially nearing $5k by the end of the decadereuters.com. This would likely require a continuation of current trends plus an extra boost: perhaps a recession that forces massive money printing (beyond what’s already happened), or a geopolitical event that drives a large rotation out of equities and into safety. It could also correspond to an official policy shift – for instance, if a major country announced a new gold-linked currency or significantly raised its gold reserves target, it could re-rate the price upward. Conditions: Inflation that stays sticky high, leading to a loss of confidence in central banks’ control; a weakening dollar trend accelerating; possibly some “new gold era” narrative taking hold among the public and institutions, leading to higher allocations.
• $7,500–8,000/oz (early 2030s) – Extreme bullish (requires big shifts): Hardly any mainstream economist predicts this outright, but one could back into it with some assumptions. For instance, if gold simply continued the pace of increase it has seen since 2018 (~15% annualized) for another 5-6 years, it would approach this range. More likely, to get here we’d need a major currency event: perhaps the dollar loses its reserve status more rapidly, or a second currency crisis hits (imagine something like a Eurozone breakup or a Yen crisis causing global reverberations). At ~$7,500, gold would be roughly 2.5× today’s level, implying something on the order of a global financial reset or panic. A historical analogue might be the 1970s again: gold went up ~24× from its 1971 de-peg price ($35) to the 1980 peak ($850). A repeat multiplier from the $1,675 level of late 2019 (before the pandemic rally) would indeed put gold in the high $7,000s. Conditions: out-of-control global stagflation (high inflation + stagnant growth), or conversely, a deflationary crisis met with unlimited money creation (some argue either extreme helps gold).
• $10,000/oz – Tail risk / new monetary system: As discussed, $10k would likely mean either severe hyperinflation or a concerted revaluation. For instance, if the Federal Reserve lost independence and the U.S. started down a path of debt monetization akin to weaker economies, investors might entirely flee the dollar. It’s worth noting that if the dollar collapsed to the point of $10k gold, other assets might inflate in price too (e.g., gasoline might be $50 a gallon, etc.). Alternatively, $10k could happen via a policy decision: say, to restore a gold standard, the price of gold might need to be an order of magnitude higher so that existing gold reserves cover a meaningful share of the money supply. One famous calculation by hedge fund manager Luke Gromen posited that backing the U.S. monetary base 40% with gold (as was roughly the case under Bretton Woods) would require a gold price well above $10,000/oz. Conditions: basically a breakdown in the current monetary order – either through hyperinflation or a deliberate reset to something new.
• $15,000/oz – “Apocalyptic” but not impossible: We include this because it has been floated in technical circlesfinbold.com and because it represents about the highest end of what even gold bulls talk about. $15k would almost surely mean major fiat currency failure in multiple leading economies. It’s the kind of number you get if, say, the world decided to return to a full gold standard and reprice accordingly, or if a combination of hyperinflations across large countries occurred. One scenario: if the U.S. had hyperinflation like Weimar Germany (not saying it will), gold could go to these kinds of figures in dollar terms as the dollar value implodes. The important context is, by the time gold hit $15,000, the dollar (or whichever currency) might be only a fraction of its former value. It’s not so much gold going “to the moon” in real value, as paper collapsing relative to gold’s stable value. Conditions: think worst-case – global war that forces a wholesale reboot of economies, or G10 central banks losing all credibility and unleashing uncontrollable inflation.

In summary, the consensus sees $3,700–4,000 within reach in the next year or tworeuters.com, given the supportive trends we know. Pushing toward $5,000 usually enters the conversation as a “high-risk scenario” if things go quite wrong (e.g., Fed independence erodes, etc.)reuters.com. Beyond that, forecasts enter the realm of conjecture and tail risk. Gold at $10k or higher shouldn’t be thought of as just an investment win, but as a sign of serious upheaval.

Sources for these targets include recent research notes from Goldman Sachsreuters.com, Deutsche Bankreuters.com, and others, as well as historical analogiesbullionvault.com and technical studiesfinbold.com. They paint a range of possibilities – from continuation of the status quo to utter rupture of the system. Where we land will depend on policy choices and global events in the coming years.

Conclusion: What the Gold Price Is Telling Us

At current macro settings, our Gold Price Forecast 2026 stays constructive with asymmetric upside. Gold’s surge to record highs in 2025 is not merely a commodities story – it’s fundamentally a monetary story. The message in that $3,758/oz price tag is that investors, and especially nations, are hedging against the currency and credit structures that have defined the past few decades. In plainer terms, the world has some doubts about the current financial order, and those doubts are being expressed through buying gold.

Several powerful forces are converging in this moment:

• Central banks are loading up on gold at a pace last seen in the 1960s (when the Bretton Woods system was under strain). Over 1,000 tonnes each year, net, have been added to global reserves recentlyreuters.com. This is a structural shift – these are long-term holdings, a sign that monetary authorities want insurance against currency declines or geopolitical estrangement.
• Investors are responding to persistent inflation and negative real yields, just like in the 1970s. When the real value of cash is in question, gold benefits. The fact that gold has hit 28 new highs in 2025 and gained over 30% in a yearreuters.com underscores that something is off-kilter in the usual balance between interest rates and inflation.
• Geopolitical fragmentation is amplifying. The U.S.-led order faces challenges; sanctions and trade wars have shown countries that dollar assets can be turned into tools of pressure. So they seek neutrality in gold. The rise of BRICS and similar initiatives are an expression of a desire to step outside the U.S. dollar’s shadow. Gold is a tool in that project (perhaps the tool of choice, since it’s accepted by East and West alike, and no one can block a gold transaction that happens in a vault).

All of these trends elevate gold’s role. It’s as if the entire globe – from central bank vaults to retail vault apps – collectively decided to raise gold’s “rating” as an asset. Naturally, the price responded upward. Net-net, this gold price prediction will flex with real yields, dollar trajectory, and official-sector demand, but the bias into 2026 remains higher-lows.

Beyond forecasts and scenarios, one of the most practical steps is holding physical gold. Leopard Jewelry Studio offers personalized 750 gold bars and coins, blending investment security with the joy of gifting — an ideal choice for Christmas gifts under $300, anniversaries, or long-term keepsakes.

So what is gold telling us? It’s signaling a few things loud and clear:

• Confidence in fiat money is a bit shakier than it was a few years ago. Not destroyed, but shaken. The fact that people are even contemplating alternatives (like digital currencies or a return to commodities) means the free lunch of endless money printing has its limits before trust erodes.
• We’re in a high-risk environment. Safe-haven demand doesn’t surge like this unless there are plenty of threats perceived – whether economic (recession fears, debt crises), political (unstable governance or conflict), or financial (bubbles, banking issues). Gold thrives on risk, and it’s thriving now, which implies risk is abundant.
• Change might be on the horizon in the international monetary system. It’s often said that gold is the “canary in the coal mine.” When it jumps, something in the mine is toxic. The last two times gold had moves of this magnitude were the late 1970s (end of an era of U.S. inflation, leading to a drastic regime change at the Fed) and 2010–2011 (peak of a crisis that led to major new financial regulations and Eurozone reforms). In 2025, we might likewise be at the cusp of a reordering – perhaps new rules for the Fed (or a question mark over its independence), perhaps new trade and reserve currency arrangements (if BRICS and others have their way). Gold is, in effect, pricing in a regime shift of some kind.

For all the speculative targets we discussed, it’s worth emphasizing: gold is not guaranteed to keep soaring in a straight line. It could consolidate or pull back if, for instance, inflation decelerates sharply or if geopolitical tensions ease. But even if that happens, the underlying forces (debt, de-dollarization, etc.) are likely to persist in the background. That suggests gold will remain in favor.

A prudent takeaway for readers, whether investors or policy folks, is this: watch the signals, not the daily noise. The signals – like official sector buying or the dollar’s trajectory – will tell you if gold’s rise has more room to run. In 2025, those signals are still pointing up. Central banks are expected to keep adding goldgold.org, and talk of rate cuts (not hikes) is in the air. On the flip side, if you see central banks suddenly selling (as in 1990s) or real rates surging positive, that would be a regime change that could cap gold.

At the end of the day, gold is a barometer of trust. Right now, it’s indicating that trust in traditional systems has weakened – not collapsed, but weakened. We started with Nixon in 1971 because that event ultimately led to a loss of trust in the dollar in the 1970s and a soaring gold price. Trust was rebuilt in the 1980s–90s (strong dollar, low gold). Here we are 50 years later, and trust is wavering again – in fiat currency’s stability, in geopolitical stability, in central banks’ autonomy. Gold’s climb to record highs is the market’s way of registering a vote of no confidence in the status quoreuters.com.

Whether that vote forces changes (like policy course-corrections or new monetary agreements) remains to be seen. But one thing is certain: gold will be watching, and reacting. In that sense, the price of gold has become a scoreboard – measuring in real time the pressure building in the global financial system. If the number keeps rising, it likely means that pressure is still growing. And if someday the number truly explodes upward, it will signal that something fundamental has broken. For now, gold is telling us to stay alert. The dollar empire isn’t ended yet, but the challengers are gathering, and the gleam of gold is leading the way.

Short Glossary

• Nixon Shock (1971): A reference to President Nixon’s surprise decision to end the U.S. dollar’s convertibility into gold, effectively collapsing the Bretton Woods system. It led to floating exchange rates and the modern fiat currency erafederalreservehistory.org.
• De-Dollarization: The process of moving away from using the U.S. dollar as the primary currency for international trade and reserves. This can involve using other currencies or assets (like gold) for settlementsinvestingnews.com. It’s driven by a desire to reduce reliance on the dollar, often for political or risk reasons.
• Real Interest Rate: The interest rate after accounting for inflation. For example, if a bond pays 5% but inflation is 3%, the real interest rate is 2%. Gold tends to do well when real rates are low or negative, because other safe investments lose purchasing power in those conditions.
• BRICS: An acronym for Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa – a bloc of major emerging economies. In this context, BRICS often signifies a broader coalition working on financial initiatives like alternative payment systems or a potential reserve currency to rival the dollar.
• Safe-Haven Asset: An investment that is expected to retain or increase in value during market turbulence. Gold is a classic safe haven – when investors panic, they often buy gold (and similarly, assets like U.S. Treasury bonds or the Swiss franc are considered safe havens).
• Fiat Currency: Money that is not backed by a physical commodity (like gold) but by the government that issued it. Most modern currencies (USD, EUR, JPY, etc.) are fiat currencies. Their value comes from the public’s trust that others will accept them.
• Gold Price Forecast 2026: Our baseline range and scenario set for 2026; a living gold price prediction updated as real yields, FX, and central-bank flows evolve.

Sources & Further Reading

• Reuters – April 22, 2025: “Gold’s record run gains further traction; market conquers $3,500/oz.” (Ashitha Shivaprasad & Anjana Anil) – News report on gold hitting $3,500, with context of Trump’s Fed comments and central bank buyingreuters.comreuters.com.
• Reuters – Sept 2, 2025: “Gold climbs to record high of over $3,500 on bets of US rate cuts, economic risks.” – Details on gold above $3.5k, with analysis of Fed expectations and central bank/ETF demandreuters.comreuters.com.
• Reuters – June 17, 2025: “Central banks favour gold over dollar for reserves, WGC survey.” (Pratima Desai) – Coverage of the World Gold Council’s 2025 central bank survey, showing expectations of higher gold and lower dollar reservesreuters.comreuters.com.
• Federal Reserve History: “Nixon Ends Convertibility of U.S. Dollars to Gold” – An essay detailing the circumstances and impact of the 1971 Nixon Shockfederalreservehistory.org.
• Investopedia – 2025: Various articles on gold’s drivers and recent performance, e.g. “Gold Is Pricier Than Ever. Here’s Why Experts See It Rising Even More,” which discuss inflation-adjusted records and forecastsinvestopedia.com.
• InvestmentNews/Bloomberg – July 3, 2025: “Central banks boost gold holdings amid FX concerns.” (Naomi Tajitsu & Jack Ryan) – Insight into central bankers’ view on “weaponization” of reserves and the shift to goldinvestmentnews.cominvestmentnews.com.
• Finbold – Feb 2025: “Why gold to $15,000 is ‘entirely reasonable’.” – Outlines a technical analysis argument for a potential 600% gold surge (very much a bullish outlier case)finbold.comfinbold.com.
• BullionVault – historical: “Gold Prices and Hyperinflation.” (Jeff Clark) – Discusses gold’s performance in extreme cases like Weimar Germanybullionvault.com.
• John Paulson interview (Reuters – Apr 29, 2025): Billionaire investor citing central bank buying and trade tensions as drivers that could push gold near $5,000 by 2028reuters.com.
• World Gold Council – Central Bank Gold Reserves Survey 2025: Full report (gold.org) for an in-depth look at why and how central banks are increasing gold holdingsgold.orggold.org.

These sources provide additional data and perspectives underpinning the analysis above. Each offers a piece of the puzzle – from newsy day-to-day developments to big-picture surveys and historical parallels – helping to understand why gold is doing what it’s doing, and where it might go from here.